(Kitco News) – Bitcoin (Bitcoin) the price continues to rise in post-halving trading as over the past 24 hours the major cryptocurrencies have traded in a tight range between $63,520 and $65,285 as traders await the next market-moving catalyst.

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

The sideways price action comes as US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC saw its first day of outflows on Thursday, when $22.6 million was withdrawn from the fund, while BlackRock’s IBIT recorded its second consecutive day of neutral net flows, according to data provided by Farside.

The decrease in demand for ETFs means that the positive pressure on the price of Bitcoin has decreased significantly, leading to the consolidation witnessed in the last two months.

“This week’s crypto market continues to bear,” said Rachel Lin, co-founder and CEO of SynFutures, in a note to Kitco Crypto. “The bears sold off the strong rally we saw earlier in the week, and the long-awaited Bitcoin halving came and went without any significant impact on price action.”

Lin noted that a look at the Bitcoin price chart during previous halving cycles shows that “in the weeks after the halving there will be a sideways or declining trend until BTC surpasses the previous high, which currently stands at 73,600 ”.

“The closest support remains at the 60,000 level,” she said. “Its importance became visible last Friday, when the price recovered strongly after reaching that zone. If the price remains above 60,000, we will likely see a sideways trend. However, a break below this level could trigger strong selling.”

“If the 60,000 level falls, the next strong support zone will be between 50-52K, indicating a 15% drop in BTC price,” warned Lin.

Looking at the broader crypto market, Lin said that “crypto fundamental developments have been mixed this week.”

“We have received positive news about the approval of the crypto ETF in Hong Kong, which will likely begin trading on April 30,” she noted. “On the other hand, in the US, federal authorities arrested the two co-founders of Samourai Wallet, a Bitcoin wallet service, on money laundering charges.”

“On the macro side, we should pay attention to the significant US economic data published on Thursday and Friday,” Lin added. “The GDP growth rate on Thursday was below expectations, and the CPE Price Index is expected on Friday. How US stocks react to this data will, in turn, impact the crypto market.”

Lin said he expects Bitcoin price action to remain volatile, although it will vary sideways in the short term. “Currently, 60,000 and 67,500 remain the two important levels to watch. A break from either will give us a clearer picture of what to expect next,” she concluded.

Based on the current chart configuration, market analyst TradingShot said Bitcoin is preparing to begin what has historically been the “most aggressive part of the bull cycle.”

“Bitcoin has successfully tested and held the Mayer Multiple (MM) average (red trendline) and is now consolidating,” said TradingShot in a TradingView to update. “As you can see from the green arrows, this is the point where the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle historically begins, as even on occasions when the MM Average broke marginally (July 2013), the recovery that followed was even more impressive and strong.”

“We can actually get a progression from these sequences. If we measure the Fibonacci extensions from the minimum of the MM average and the maximum before it, we can see that Cycle 1 peaked marginally above Fib 2.0, Cycle 2 was +2 Fib of Cycle 1, i.e. 4.0, and Cycle 3 was +2 Fib from Cycle 2, i.e. 6.0,” he said. “We can assume, of course, always with the relative degree of uncertainty that Cycle 4 could be +2 Fib more than the Fib of Cycle 3, that is, 6.0 + 2.0 = 8.0.”

Put more simply, TradingShot said this setup points to a Bitcoin rally of $300,000 in the current cycle.

“Unrealistic or not, this gives us a projection of $300,000 and is undeniably technical as these are the exact measurements from high to low at the time it touched the MM average,” concluded TradingShot.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,710, up 0.5% on the 24-hour chart.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes. This is not a request to carry out any exchange of goods, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article accept no liability for loss and/or damage arising from the use of this publication.

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