I know I know. You probably expected me to set a higher target price for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). After all, everyone is doing it.

• Fundstrat Global Advisors partner Tom Lee sees $150,000 per coin as a “base case” in 2024.

• Great Britain analysts central monetary bank Chartered Standard recently agreed with Fundstrat’s $150,000 predictionand said they expect another step up to $250,000 next year.

• Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood used to think Bitcoin would hit $600,000 in 2024, on track for a $1.5 million target by 2030. She hasn’t updated the short-term target recently, but her 2030 target now is $3.8 million per Bitcoin.

And to be fair, I myself have set a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin – but not for this year. I expect this milestone to be reached in 2025 or 2026. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle of price increases suggests another dramatic price gain following the halving of mining rewards in April – but don’t expect this increase to materialize immediately.

Bitcoin price movements after halvings 1, 2 and 3

Firstly, there is a clear pattern to be found on Bitcoin price charts after each halving.

1. From the summer of 2012 to the fall of 2013, the price of Bitcoin saw significant growth. On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin underwent its first halving, at around the price of US$12 per digital currency. In late November 2013, the price of Bitcoin peaked at approximately $1,100 in the first halving cycle.

2. On July 9, 2016, with its price around $650, Bitcoin passed its second halving. In December 2017, its price peaked at nearly $20,000, before falling to around $6,500 in April 2018. This was the peak period of Bitcoin’s second halving cycle.

3. On May 11, 2020, it was time for Bitcoin’s third halving, with the price hovering around $9,000, as the world grappled with the impact of COVID-19 for the first time. In November 2021, the price of Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of nearly $69,000, reflecting increased institutional interest and widespread adoption.

You see the pattern, right? Each halving so far has been followed by an impressive price gain, but always after a significant delay. See how long it took Bitcoin to reach the peak of each halving cycle, counting from the date of each mining reward halving:

1. 1 year, 1 day

2. 1 year, 5 months, 8 days

3. 1 year, 5 months, 30 days

From this perspective, it stands to reason that the fourth halving should result in another price spike, but not before the spring of 2025. Anything faster would be a significant acceleration of the post-halving market reaction.

The story continues

Why every Bitcoin halving is different

Of course, each halving event is unique. In 2012, the first was to map completely unknown waters. Four years later, Bitcoin investors and miners didn’t know whether the halving cycle would inspire similar market reactions twice. In 2020, COVID-19 disrupted work, but the same old pattern was still playing out in many ways.

So here we are in 2024, waiting to see exactly what the next cycle will look like. All kinds of theories have been proposed and explored, but only time will tell.

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs started a surge in the price of Bitcoin a few months before the halving. Will the leading cryptocurrency simply follow its previous pattern from a higher starting point, or will the expected rise after the halving be undermined by a richer starting price?

When it comes to the exact shape of the Bitcoin futures price chart, your guess is as good as mine. Historical patterns suggest a slow burn in 2024, followed by a sharp rise in early 2025. The real world doesn’t always conform to past patterns, but the market has built a fairly consistent collection of reactions to Bitcoin’s bear cycles. half.

Image source: Getty Images.

What to expect from Bitcoin in the coming years

I’m not a fan of technical analysis. Unexpected events can take the wind out of sails or take a select handful of stocks to new heights without warning. Therefore, I hesitate to provide a specific price target for Bitcoin at the end of 2024. Previous chart squiggles quickly lose all meaning in the face of real-world surprises.

However, the long-term uptrend is undeniable and is supported by the pure mathematics of Bitcoin’s inner workings. Therefore, cryptocurrency appears poised for some modest gains as the post-halving economy evolves before our eyes, whether regulators help or hinder them. A 15% gain to $80,000 seems quite reasonable, followed by the usual post-halving surge next year.

Don’t expect the coin to go to the Moon in 2024, but feel free to build a long-term Bitcoin position to take advantage of the fourth halving – followed by the fifth in 2028, the sixth in 2032, and so on.

Bitcoin’s true wealth will belong to long-term investors with great patience and a willingness to buy more Bitcoin on the inevitable dips along the way.

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Anders Bylund has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Standard Chartered Plc. The motley fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: Bitcoin will reach $80,000 in 2024 was originally published by The Motley Fool

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