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Insights from past cycles and future predictions

BlockChainGuardian Staff

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Insights from past cycles and future predictions

While the history of cryptocurrencies is short, with Bitcoin celebrating its 15th anniversary this year, we have already experienced three major cycles: 2011-2013, 2015-2017, and 2019-2021. The short cycle time is not surprising given that the crypto market trades 24/7, about five times more than the stock market. The 2011-2013 cycle was predominantly about BTC, as ETH was launched in 2015. Analyzing the last two cycles reveals patterns that help us understand the anatomy of a crypto bull market. With the market warming up for the US election and the prospect of improved liquidity, history could rhyme again.

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BTC Leads Altcoins to Rally

In the 2015-2017 and 2019-2021 cycles, Bitcoin initially led the market rally, establishing confidence and setting the stage for a broader rally. As investor optimism grew, capital flowed into altcoins, fueling a broad-based market rally. Altcoin market cap peaks often coincided with BTC market cap dominance bottoms, indicating capital rotation from BTC to alts. Currently, BTC dominance is still rising from the post-FTX low, suggesting more room for BTC to run before alts catch up.

Altcoins significantly outperform in the later half of the cycle

In both major cycles, altcoins significantly outperformed Bitcoin after an initial phase where their returns were comparable. This trend reflects investors’ increased risk appetite and how reflective the alt market can be of rising venture capital. In the second half of the 2015-2017 cycle, alts returned 344x versus BTC’s 26x. Similarly, in the second half of the 2019-2021 cycle, alts returned 16x versus BTC’s 5x. We are nearly halfway through the current post-FTX cycle, with alts slightly lagging BTC. This trend suggests potential altcoin outperformance in the second half.

Cryptocurrencies, like other risk assets, are highly correlated with global liquidity conditions. Over the past two cycles, global liquidity has increased by 30-50%. The recent Q2 sell-off was partly driven by tighter liquidity conditions. However, as Q2 data confirmed a slowdown in inflation and growth, the trajectory for a Fed rate cut looks favorable.

The market is now pricing in a more than 95% chance of a September rate cut, up from 50% at the start of Q3. Additionally, crypto policy is becoming central to the US election, with Trump endorsing crypto, which could influence the new Democratic candidate. The last two cycles have also overlapped with the US election and BTC halving events, increasing the rally potential.

Could this time be different?

While history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, the rhyming nature of past cycles—initial Bitcoin dominance, subsequent altcoin outperformance, and macroeconomic influences—sets up an altcoin rally. However, this time may be different. On the plus side, BTC and ETH have achieved mainstream adoption through ETFs, with record inflows from both retail and institutional investors.

On the cautious side, a larger and more diverse set of altcoins compete for investor capital, and many new projects have limited circulating supply due to airdrops, leading to future dilution. Only ecosystems with solid technology and the ability to attract builders and users can thrive in this cycle.

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We are the editorial team of BlockChainGuardian, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on BlockChainGuardian, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

‘This is huge’ — Billionaire Mark Cuban issues ‘incredible’ Bitcoin and crypto prediction amid price slump

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'This is huge' — Billionaire Mark Cuban issues 'incredible' Bitcoin and crypto prediction amid price slump

Bitcoin
Bitcoin
came back with a vengeance this year when former President Donald Trump Cryptocurrency boosts US presidential election in November with ‘revolutionary’ plan.

Subscribe now to Forbes CryptoAsset and Blockchain Consultant and “discover blockchain blockbusters poised to generate 1,000%+ gains” after the bitcoin halving earthquake!

The price of bitcoin has surged to more than its all-time high in recent months, surpassing $70,000 per bitcoin and triggering a wave of mega-optimistic predictions about the price of bitcointhough it fell again this week, falling below $65,000 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady.

Now, as Elon Musk suddenly breaks his silence on bitcoin and cryptocurrenciesBillionaire investor Mark Cuban called a California plan to digitize 42 million car titles using blockchain an “incredible step forward” and “huge” for cryptocurrencies.

Sign up for free CryptoCodex nowA daily five-minute newsletter for traders, investors, and crypto curious people that will keep you up to date and ahead of the bitcoin and crypto bull market

ForbesElon Musk Suddenly Breaks His Silence On Bitcoin After Issuing Shocking Warning Of US Dollar “Doom” That Could Trigger Cryptocurrency Price BoomBy Billy Bambrough

Mark Cuban, famous Shark Tank investor and billionaire owner of the NBA team Dallas Mavericks, has… [+] called a cryptocurrency update “amazing” amid bitcoin’s price slump.

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The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has digitized 42 million car titles using blockchain, it was reported by Reuters, through technology company Oxhead Alpha on the Avalanche blockchain and designed to detect fraud and facilitate the securities transfer process.

“This is an incredible development for crypto,” Cuban, best known as an investor on TV’s Shark Tank and owner of the Dallas Mavericks NBA team, posted on X, joking that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler could sue the state as part of his hostility toward cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

“The reason this is huge for crypto is because people who hold the tokens will have an app with an Avalanche wallet,” Cuban said. “Tens of millions of Californians having and using a crypto wallet in the next five years, or however long it takes, normalizes the use of wallets and crypto.”

John Wu, president of Avalanche developer Ava Labs, told Reuters that California’s DMV is “creating a wallet that you can download on your phone.”

Sign up for CryptoCodex now—A free daily newsletter for the crypto-curious

ForbesCryptocurrencies Are Suddenly Bracing For A ‘Very Major’ U-Turn In China After Wild Price Swings For Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRPBy Billy Bambrough

Bitcoin’s price has rallied this year, triggering a wave of bullish bitcoin price predictions from… [+] people like billionaire Mark Cuban.

Forbes Digital Assets

Last month, Cuban predicted that if the US dollar falls as the global reserve currency, bitcoin could become “a global ‘safe haven’” and a “global currency.” potentially sending the price of bitcoin to a much higher level.

According to Cuban, bitcoin could become what its most ardent supporters “envision” — a means “of protecting our economies… This is already happening in countries facing hyperinflation.”

The price of bitcoin has skyrocketed over the past year, largely due to the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, leading a bitcoin attack on Wall Street.

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MicroStrategy’s Cash Flow Amid Bitcoin Rally Raises Some Eyebrows

BlockChainGuardian Staff

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MicroStrategy’s Cash Flow Amid Bitcoin Rally Raises Some Eyebrows

Analysts are starting to pay more attention than usual to Bitcoin-proxy’s underlying enterprise software business MicroStrategy Inc.

How to better invest cash generated from operations is what originally prompted co-founder and CEO Michael Saylor to turn to Bitcoin four years ago. Since then, the Tysons Corner, Va.-based company has adopted a two-pronged strategy of investing in the cryptocurrency instead of traditional assets like short-term Treasuries and ramping up its software operations.

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Large Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Added $5.4 Billion Worth of BTC in July, Data Shows

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Large Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Added $5.4 Billion Worth of BTC in July, Data Shows

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CoinDesk is a awarded media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists follow a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk has been acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Optimistica regulated digital asset exchange. The Bullish Group is majority owned by Block.one; both companies have interests CoinDesk has a portfolio of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial board to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Hits Six-Week High After Trump’s Pro-Crypto Speech

BlockChainGuardian Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC) Hits Six-Week High After Trump’s Pro-Crypto Speech

Bitcoin has retreated from a six-week high as investors shift their focus to speculation the U.S. may sell seized tokens just days after Donald Trump vowed to create a government stockpile of the cryptocurrency if he is elected president again.

The US transferred $2 billion worth of Bitcoin to a new digital wallet address on Monday, blockchain research firm Arkham said in a publish on social media platform X. Market analysis firms have speculated that the tokens are from the Silk Road marketplace, where customers used virtual currencies to buy illegal drugs and hacking tools before it was shut down.

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