Bitcoin
The seasonality of crypto asset returns
Tick, tock, next block. Bitcoin works like clockwork, as they say. Approximately every 10 minutes, a new block of transactions is recorded on the public ledger.
Obviously, time plays an important role in the Bitcoin protocol. But what about the seasons?
Traditional financial research provides ample evidence of seasonality in stock returns. You’ve probably come across terms like “January effect” or “Turnaround Tuesday.”
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Statistically significant seasonal performance patterns can be observed over virtually any time period: quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, and so on.
The saying “sell in May and go away” has been around since the 19th century, as the summer months tend to have historically shown notable weakness in stock returns compared to other months of the year.
A look at Bitcoin’s average monthly returns reveals that the summer months between June and September also showed significantly lower sub-average returns.
Why should we care about this?
Well, if you just kept money during the months of August and September (when you were on vacation) and only invested in Bitcoin during the rest of the year, you would have outperformed an investor who buys and holds Bitcoin by four times!
Therefore, statistically significant seasonal performance patterns could theoretically be used to derive significant alpha.
Furthermore, the average seasonal performance pattern also suggests that Bitcoin could continue to rise in the coming weeks until around June, when the average seasonal performance pattern suggests that Bitcoin could take a break during the summer months before continuing to its rise at the end of the year. .
That said, as mentioned above, seasonal performance patterns can be observed in almost any time period.
In this context, bitcoin appears to have performed better at the beginning of the week (Monday to Wednesday), while performance at the end of the week and especially on weekends has historically been below average.
Similar patterns can be observed during different trading hours: while performance during Asian trading hours (12:00 UTC – 6:00 UTC) was mostly below average, European (8:00 UTC – 16:30 UTC) and American (2:30 p.m.) trading hours were mostly below average. UTC – 21:00 UTC) trading hours generally perform above the historical average. That said, at the end of the American trading session (21:00 UTC), Bitcoin’s returns have historically been the worst.
Similar intraday performance patterns can also be observed in the traditional FX market, where the majority of trading volumes occur during the intersection between European and American trading hours (between 2:30 pm UTC and 4:30 pm UTC).
Bitcoin trades 24/7/365 around the world, but price fluctuations are ultimately a product of human action. So it’s no surprise that “sell in May and go away” appears to apply to Bitcoin’s return profile as well.
Although Bitcoin continues to run like clockwork, its performance is ultimately determined by what time we are awake or asleep, when we start working, and when most of us are on vacation or not working.
This is not investment advice.
Bitcoin
‘This is huge’ — Billionaire Mark Cuban issues ‘incredible’ Bitcoin and crypto prediction amid price slump
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
came back with a vengeance this year when former President Donald Trump Cryptocurrency boosts US presidential election in November with ‘revolutionary’ plan.
The price of bitcoin has surged to more than its all-time high in recent months, surpassing $70,000 per bitcoin and triggering a wave of mega-optimistic predictions about the price of bitcointhough it fell again this week, falling below $65,000 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady.
Now, as Elon Musk suddenly breaks his silence on bitcoin and cryptocurrenciesBillionaire investor Mark Cuban called a California plan to digitize 42 million car titles using blockchain an “incredible step forward” and “huge” for cryptocurrencies.
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Mark Cuban, famous Shark Tank investor and billionaire owner of the NBA team Dallas Mavericks, has… [+] called a cryptocurrency update “amazing” amid bitcoin’s price slump.
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The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has digitized 42 million car titles using blockchain, it was reported by Reuters, through technology company Oxhead Alpha on the Avalanche blockchain and designed to detect fraud and facilitate the securities transfer process.
“This is an incredible development for crypto,” Cuban, best known as an investor on TV’s Shark Tank and owner of the Dallas Mavericks NBA team, posted on X, joking that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler could sue the state as part of his hostility toward cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
“The reason this is huge for crypto is because people who hold the tokens will have an app with an Avalanche wallet,” Cuban said. “Tens of millions of Californians having and using a crypto wallet in the next five years, or however long it takes, normalizes the use of wallets and crypto.”
John Wu, president of Avalanche developer Ava Labs, told Reuters that California’s DMV is “creating a wallet that you can download on your phone.”
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Bitcoin’s price has rallied this year, triggering a wave of bullish bitcoin price predictions from… [+] people like billionaire Mark Cuban.
Forbes Digital Assets
Last month, Cuban predicted that if the US dollar falls as the global reserve currency, bitcoin could become “a global ‘safe haven’” and a “global currency.” potentially sending the price of bitcoin to a much higher level.
According to Cuban, bitcoin could become what its most ardent supporters “envision” — a means “of protecting our economies… This is already happening in countries facing hyperinflation.”
The price of bitcoin has skyrocketed over the past year, largely due to the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, leading a bitcoin attack on Wall Street.
Bitcoin
MicroStrategy’s Cash Flow Amid Bitcoin Rally Raises Some Eyebrows
Analysts are starting to pay more attention than usual to Bitcoin-proxy’s underlying enterprise software business MicroStrategy Inc.
How to better invest cash generated from operations is what originally prompted co-founder and CEO Michael Saylor to turn to Bitcoin four years ago. Since then, the Tysons Corner, Va.-based company has adopted a two-pronged strategy of investing in the cryptocurrency instead of traditional assets like short-term Treasuries and ramping up its software operations.
Bitcoin
Large Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Added $5.4 Billion Worth of BTC in July, Data Shows
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Bitcoin
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