Bitcoin
Bitcoin May Forecast – Is $70,000 a Real Certainty or Is…
- Bitcoin falling below the STH realized price could capitulate the price to $53,000.
- Holding support at $69,178 could take BTC to $92,237.
Bitcoin [BTC] is set to end the month with a negative price return for the first time since the beginning of the year. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the price of Bitcoin was $63,431 at press time. On average, this represents a drop of 9.71% in the last 30 days.
As May approached, doubts arose whether the currency would to recover of this decline. While some analysts suggested a truce, others painted a bleak picture for BTC.
But rumors and personal opinions will not solve the problem. That’s why AMBCrypto analyzed some crucial metrics that could harm or disrupt the coin’s price next month.
Careful! Conviction is not reality
The first on the list is Reserve Risk. powered by on-chain analytics platform Glassnode. This metric measures long-term investors’ confidence in the price.
If the price is high and confidence is low, it means that Bitcoin may not offer a great risk to reward. On the other hand, a declining value and growing confidence suggest that the price may have a chance of appreciating.
Source: Glassnode
At press time, the Reserve Risk was 0.002, indicating that holders were confident in the price of BTC. Furthermore, as the price drop in the last 30 days, it could be a signal to start accumulating before the next step.
If accumulation increases, BTC could reach $70,000, and this could put bears in an unfavorable situation. Another metric to watch is the short-term holder realized price (STH).
For context, Realized Price is the average cost of purchasing BTC on the network. If the spot price of Bitcoin falls below the realized price of STH, it could mean that the coin has reached the local top.
Source: Glassnode
Has the path to US$92,237 begun?
If the value of BTC remains above it, a new uptrend could be underway. At the time of writing, the realized price of STH was $59,586. If Bitcoin falls below this level, the spot value could drop to $53,000.
However, we can also assess the price Bitcoin needs to reach to avoid capitulation. That’s why we evaluated the MVRV Price Ranges. MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value.
With the pricing model, investors can estimate possible cycle tops and funds. At the time of writing, MVRV price ranges show that a realized price of $69,178 could send the value to $92,237.
Source: Glassnode
But this prediction may be long-term. In the short term, bulls need to rescue BTC as selling pressure has been intense lately.
To read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2024-2025
If there is an increase in accumulation, a drop below $59,586 may not happen.
Instead, the coin’s value could exceed $69,000, and this could validate a rise beyond $73,000 before the end of May.