Why one expert believes Bitcoin is the best savings technology ever

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) had a breakthrough year in 2024, recovering from a long crisis due to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval of spot bitcoin ETF products. Now, the crypto community is closely watching the SEC’s next pending decision: the approval of an ether spot ETF tied to ethereum futures (ETH-USD).

Raphael Zagury, Chief Investment Officer at Swan Bitcoin, joins Market Domination Overtime to discuss the outlook on these major cryptocurrencies, including what the 2024 US presidential race could mean for the cryptocurrency sector and the likelihood of an ether ETF.

“If you look at where we are right now in terms of volatility, volatility is pretty low. We’re in the 5%, I would say bottom decile in terms of volatility,” Zagury says. “And I think the good news, if the past is any indication of what might happen in the future, is that periods of very low volatility in bitcoin tend to have periods of offside returns, if you look 60, 90 days ahead . But short term, many things can happen in the short term, traders control the price…”

For more expert insights and the latest market action, click Here to watch this full episode of Market Domination Overtime.

This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video transcription

The microstrategy goes further with Bitcoin with plans to purchase an additional $786 million in the cryptocurrency.

And while Bitcoin has reaped the benefits from this year’s launch of the Bitcoin ETF spot ETF, cryptocurrency investors are already eyeing the next milestone for the market with the Ethereum spot ETF.

Maybe they should be approved this summer here to discuss in more depth.

Swan Bitcoin, Chief Investment Officer Rafael Zaguri, on top of all that, we were just talking about politics.

There has been a flurry of lobbying activity in Washington regarding the cryptocurrency industry.

That said, we haven’t seen a lot of fireworks on the price action front lately.

Raffaello.

So what should investors look for there?

Yes, thanks for having me, Julie.

It’s great to be here.

I think first of all, when we talk about the double haters, as I was listening to the topic, I think cryptocurrencies are becoming a topic that could influence.

Lots of double haters.

I think a lot of people are unfortunately losing a lot of faith in the system over the last few decades.

And when you have a team like that and we have politicians jumping on one side, maybe they, they’ll move some double haters but going back to the price, which is what you mentioned, the price of Bitcoin has been very stable, I think over the years, in the, you know, if you look at the last month or so, this is nothing new.

The story continues

This has happened in the past.

If you actually look at the price of Bitcoin, the way it moves, it tends to be most of the time, you know, its lateral movements are down.

And then most of the upside is actually captured in very short periods of time, right?

And I always say that’s why it’s an asset that’s very difficult to hold long term.

Uh because most of the time they’re going to endure pain, it’s weeks and months of pain, you know, for glory days, that’s the typical Bitcoin trajectory just goes back to the numbers.

If you look at where we are now, in terms of volatility, volatility is quite a bit lower, 5% I would say the bottom decile in terms of volatility.

And I think the good news, if the past is any indication of what might happen in the future, is that periods of very low volatility in Bitcoin tend to have periods of offside returns if you look 6090 days into the future, right?

But in the short term, a lot can happen in the short term.

Traders control the price.

And I think it’s increasingly important for us to get smaller.

Look, go back to the fundamentals and then think about where Bitcoin could be.

Not in 90 days, 60 days, but in 5, 10 years, because as an asset, this is what we should be thinking about for Bitcoin, I’m interested, Rafael even when you talk to friends and family and they ask you what, why you should own cryptocurrencies here?

I’m interested in, you know, what are the reasons why you tell him?

Because I, I feel like maybe the story has changed, you know, it used to be, I think so, the idealistic Rafael, you know, at least among true believers it was really thought of as this paradigm shift.

Um, I was wondering if you think that’s still the case or if you tell him?

It is a store of value.

It’s a means of exchange.

What are the reasons?

Yes, Josh, you know, I come from traditional finance.

I worked at Golden, I worked at Merrow.

I worked at Deutsche.

I’ve worked at all the big banks and for many years I’ve tried to tell people about Bitcoin and most of them just shy away.

And I think about this a lot because people start, like you said, a lot of them start with many, many exchanges like the first, uh you know, trying to put Bitcoin next to PayPal and other things and other technologies.

But Bitcoin is much bigger than that.

In my perspective.

I think Bitcoin is the best savings technology we have ever seen as economists.

When I look at Bitcoin and you know, a monetary policy written in code, it’s transparent, it’s completely predictable for 15 years without any changes.

Right.

There is not a single central bank in the world that has similar or similar monetary policy to what we have seen in Bitcoin.

And at the end of the day, when we talk about inflation and predictability, what really kills the plans of economic actors is the volatility of inflation.

If we had 2% that would be the central banks’ inflation target, which by definition is already bad.

But let’s say they managed to hit 2% every single month or every single year without any change which would already be bad.

But that’s not what happens.

There’s huge volatility in some months, you know, inflation for the things you buy might be closer to 10% in other months it will be negative and planning around that takes a toll and has an impact on the economy and the long term.

Not only does the money printing continue, but things continue to degrade.

And you know, if you look at a world of total unpredictability that’s what we have and unpredictability increases Bitcoin.

I think it’s a beacon of predictability in a world where you can’t predict pretty much anything.

I don’t think if you looked at a Bitcoin price chart, you would say that it’s a beacon of predictability and that 2% inflation means growth.

So with growth comes inflation, that’s usually how the economy works.

While yes, we had very low inflation before the current regime.

But leaving that aside for a minute, Rafael, I want to go back to something that you mentioned at the beginning when we were talking about politics and talking about the attention that those in the crypto community have kind of focused on this election.

Um, what are you looking for in terms of the biggest policy change that you would support that would help the cryptocurrency industry?

Yeah, I think we’re already seeing if I told people in the past that Bitcoin would become a topic of discussion in the presidential debates, people would say that would be crazy, and they said that this would never happen, you know, this was something that could never have happened and is happening.

It started with, you know, senators talking about Bitcoin, then we had, you know, more people talking about it and now we have Trump coming in and that was a surprise to most people even, you know, to some, some of us had been in Bitcoin for a long time.

Hearing him say, you know, the positive things he’s done.

Um, you know, and as I said at the beginning, I think for people who are very disillusioned with a lot of things that are happening in politics, this could be, you know, a very substantial change.

Uh On top of all that, if you look at, you know, like, uh, the approval of the ETF S, I think it started with a lot of uh uh a lot of these things, uh and the whole process of getting, the ETF Bitcoin approved, you know, that too, I think the AF was hard to overcome.

But the bottom line with all of this is that we’re getting a lot of things that, you know, we’ve been looking for for a long time, which is getting more support, more clarity around, you know, how you should hold Bitcoin, how you can wrap it.

And that’s all good, I think, and I think at the end of the day, even when we’re talking about an Ethereum ETF, I think all, all ETFs should be approved, what the SEC should focus on more and more is what they would have had to focus, I think from the beginning, which is there, you know what they started when we had the Securities Act 3433 and 34.

The overall goal was to provide better transparency, better disclosure, you know, to seekers that really highlighted the risks.

And I think there’s an opportunity here for the SEC to go back to its original mandate and help with that.

But overall, it’s just very nice and positive to see the developments.

I think that, you know, we’re definitely going in the right direction.

Raffaello.

Good to see you.

Thank you for taking the time for us.

Appreciate it.

Thank you.

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