Ethereum
Will this cycle ignore Ethereum?
“This bull cycle will ignore Ethereum”
I have heard this opinion among investors since at least September 2023.
By jumping, they mean muted ETH performance, as in the case of ETH underperforming BTC or barely beating Bitcoin.
Now, you can approach this question as an Ethereum hater, the type who thinks “Ethereum is dead” and “newer technology” has taken its place. I think it’s a boring and obviously wrong 1D take. Full disclosure: I remain a full-fledged bull on ETH.
So let’s instead take the perspective of a long-term Ethereum bull market.
I have heard two perspectives from my fellow ETH bulls.
1) This cycle will ignore Ethereum
For what? Puberty is why. Ethereum is going through its awkward emo phase where it’s trying out adulthood and THE WORLD DOESN’T UNDERSTAND.
The big change for Ethereum this cycle concerns L2s. This is the first cycle where Ethereum is basically telling new users not to use mainnet: “Hey, we’re too expensive, but the good news is we have 100 shiny new L2s that you’ll love!”
Bridge, fragment, frustrate, repeat.
But the L2s are Ethereum!
Yeah, yeah, I know over time that it’s true. L2s are amazing, they are the best long-term way to expand decentralization and are also Vitalik’s vision… etc. etc.
You don’t need to tell me – I’ve been modular since 2021, but the fact is that I’m not the new marginal buyer of ETH!
Who is the new buyer? This is the memecoin Chad. This is Stacy, the app user. This is TradFi Larry.
But Chad and Stacy are busy buying the token on the channel they’re using and there are 96 distractions on L2beat. Meanwhile, Larry is buying Bitcoin – do you think he really cares about on-chain cash flow right now?
But fragmentation is being resolved and the fundamentals matter because…
Let me stop you there. I know.
Again, it’s puberty. Ethereum bites the bullet, takes the hard road, goes through its necessary difficult phase in order to become a mature, well-functioning adult chain while all toddler chains take shortcuts. LITTLE.
It’s a long-term play, but will it pay off this up cycle?
In this context ? No. We skip the cycle.
2) The ETH bull is coming
Now let’s look at the second ETH bullish outlook…
🗣️You stupid narrative trader! Sure enough, 10,000 ETH comes… wait a minute. BTC first, then ETH! This is how it happens!
Indeed, you would have to be an idiot not to see how much stronger Ethereum is now compared to its 2020 cycle.
It’s the only profitable channel, and it’s not even close! Its monetary economy is rock solid. The world’s largest exchanges are launching ETH L2. The zkEVMs are here. Unlimited L2 budgets accelerate ETH technology. We are on the eve of ETH ETFs! Blackrock launches tokenized treasures… Need I say more?
Your channel has 1 million users? Cool. Ethereum is the root chain of 1,000 chains with 1 million users each. Watch them eat your fees.
What about L2 chain fragmentation?
This is 100% fixed. Meanwhile, other chains are taking on crazy centralization debts that they will eventually have to pay back!
All in all, it’s only a matter of time before investors wake up and start valuing cash flow over narrative junk food. ETH missing this cycle would be the stupidest outcome and is so improbable that it’s barely worth thinking about. The markets are a scale, so yes, the ETH bull is coming.
There you are.
Two prospects for ETH bulls: the Skippoors and the Waitooors.
Which one are you?